For the specific analysis in question, we focused on a subset of this dataset, specifically examining the substance use data collected within the 2006 through 2022 waves of the HRS to investigate patterns in smoking behavior among older adults
It was surprising to see how consistent these findings were with our earlier research and with other studies from around the world, including from the U.K., Australia and Japan, among others, both in terms of the substantial risks associated with smoking and with the health benefits of quitting smoking, said lead study author Blake Thomson, M.Phil., D.Phil., an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford in Oxford, England
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(Illustrative example) A cigarette pack priced at 350 earlier With higher excise + GST, the post-tax price could move to 380420 This 3070 jump is enough to: Trigger down-trading Push consumers toward illicit / unorganized alternatives What demand economics explains: Price-inelastic demand keeps consumption stable, not earnings Habitual demand delays quitting but changes buying behaviour Substitute demand grows when legal prices rise sharply Income-inelastic demand leads to down-trading, not exit Effective demand (legal sales) falls faster than total consumption What may happen next: Illicit and irregular demand may rise as price gaps widen Unorganised sales gain share Legal volumes remain under pressure Earnings recovery depends more on enforcement and compliance than demand alone Why stocks corrected (in simple terms): Even a 510% drop in legal volumes can cause a much bigger hit to profits, because pricing power weakens and earnings become less predictable
[7] E-cigarette use carries health risks
